Capturing the Next Wave of EU‑China Demand

April 19, 2025 | Axion Global Consulting Blog

Executive summary

Global retail sales are recovering. Euromonitor sees the sector clawing back to pre‑pandemic volumes by late 2025 despite inflationary drag.¹
“Made in Europe” keeps its premium in China. McKinsey finds foreign brands still dominate China’s premium baskets; Swiss industry bodies are actively defending the “Swiss Made” label.² ⁵
Europeans are warming to price‑competitive Chinese brands. One in five EU car buyers would “definitely or probably” consider a Chinese marque, and parcels from ultra‑low‑cost platforms (Temu, Shein) could hit 4 billion this year—doubling 2023 levels.³ ⁹ ¹⁰
Regulation is the new battleground.
- EU: Digital Product Passport and CBAM tighten data and carbon‑footprint rules; new customs proposals scrap the €150 de‑minimis threshold.⁴ ⁷ ⁹
- China: NMPA’s Nov 2024 cosmetics inspection regime raises the bar on safety documentation.⁸
Opportunity: Brands that pre‑empt these rules—while localising product, price and channel mix—can seize share before rivals finish retro‑fitting compliance.

Market pulse: two‑way consumer appetite

Flow	2024 headline	What’s behind it
Europe → China	Online sales of European beauty and luxury rose +11 % YoY on Tmall Global; Swiss watch bodies still invest heavily in anti‑counterfeit “Swiss Made” defences.² ⁵	Post‑COVID travel curbs nudged affluent Chinese to buy direct online; European provenance signals safety & craftsmanship.
China → Europe	Chinese export cross‑border e‑commerce GMV hit ¥13.2 trn (≈€1.7 trn) in 2023, up 14 %.⁶	Ultra‑fast supply chains, AI‑driven merchandising and value pricing resonate with cost‑conscious EU shoppers.

Implication: While premium European goods still command trust in China, Europe’s own consumers are no longer brand‑loyal if the price‑value gap widens.

Rules of the game are tightening

Jurisdiction	2024‑25 change	Impact for brands
EU	Digital Product Passport pilot launches 2025 under Ecodesign Regulation; mandatory for apparel & footwear first.⁴	Need granular ingredient, recyclability and carbon data at SKU level.
	CBAM transition (2025) extends to downstream goods in 2026.⁷	Steel, aluminium or cement in packaging triggers import carbon reporting.
	Customs overhaul proposes scrapping €150 duty waiver; platforms to pre‑declare every parcel.⁹ ¹⁰	Margin hit for low‑value DTC shipments; documentation burden shifts to seller or platform.
China	NMPA cosmetic inspections (effective Nov 1 2024).⁸	Brands must maintain on‑shore responsible person & traceable safety dossiers—failure = port seizure.

Opportunity playbook

Segment	Strategic move	Why now?
European premium brands entering China	Leverage bonded‑warehouse cross‑border e‑commerce to test demand; highlight EU origin story plus ESG data that resonates with post‑pandemic safety concerns.	Tariff‑free imports under CBEC, but origin transparency attracts policy support and consumer trust.
Chinese digital‑native brands entering Europe	Localise packaging & labelling early; pilot micro‑fulfilment hubs in EU Freeports to cut lead times while meeting new customs rules.	VAT & duty thresholds are disappearing—speed and compliant paperwork become competitive moats.
Omnichannel retailers on both sides	Integrate real‑time carbon and traceability data into product pages to stay ahead of DPP and CBAM disclosures.	First movers can turn compliance cost into a marketing asset.

How Axion Global Consulting unlocks value

Market intelligence – on‑ground demand sensing in Shanghai, Zurich and Berlin to nail pricing and channel mix.
Compliance-by‑design – provide compliance advisory support with curated templates and expert-backed mapping for EU-China product disclosures.
Supplier and logistics orchestration – coordinate supplier audits (ISO 9001/14001), bonded-warehouse planning, and carbon scoring via certified logistics and inspection partners.
Omnichannel acceleration – launch playbooks for Douyin e‑commerce, Tmall Global, OTTO Market and ManoMano, plus ROI dashboards.

Six‑month action agenda for brand leaders

Carbon & data audit: capture SKU‑level footprint and ingredient data before DPP pilot expands.
Price‑pack architecture: redesign pack sizes and price points to withstand EU duty shifts and Chinese RMB volatility.
Local inventory buffers: position stock in EU Freeports or China bonded zones to offset shipping‑time shocks.
Trust cues: certify “Swiss Made”, “Made in Italy” or “China Quality” labels with QR code verification.
Regulatory drill: run tabletop exercises for an NMPA spot‑inspection or an EU customs query—Axion can facilitate.

Cross‑border retail is entering a compliance‑intensive, data‑transparent era. The winners will be those who treat regulation as strategy, not overhead—using provenance, sustainability and speed‑to‑shelf as differentiators. Axion Global Consulting stands ready to architect that advantage for you.

Endnotes

1 Euromonitor International, “Top 10 Global Consumer Trends 2024,” Jan 2024. Euromonitor

2 McKinsey & Company, “The Truth About Chinese Consumption,” Oct 2024. McKinsey & Company

3 Escalent, Chinese Automotive Brand Impact Study 2025, Feb 2025. escalent.co

4 European Commission, “Consultation on the Digital Product Passport,” 9 Apr 2025. single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu

5 Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, Annual Report 2023, Sept 2024. FH

6 Statista, “China’s Export Cross‑Border E‑commerce Market Size 2023,” Dec 2024. Statista

7 European Commission, Access2Markets, “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,” updated Feb 2025. EU Trade

8 China NMPA, “Provisions for Cosmetic Inspections (No. 52 / 2024),” 29 Apr 2024. National Medical Products Administration

9 Financial Times, “EU to crack down on Asian online retailers Temu and Shein,” 12 Jan 2025. Financial Times

10 Reuters, “EU to tighten checks on cheap products from sites like Temu and Shein,” 3 Feb 2025.

AGC